What caused surge in births?

Georgia experiences a surge in births after church partriarch's promise. Was the promise the cause? Or was it economics?

Source: The Straits Times, 27/3/9, p.A23
Headline: Church leader sparks baby boom in Georgia

Quote1:
TBILISI: Georgia's birth rate has increased sharply over the past year, a development many attribute to the influential head of the Georgian Orthodox Church, BBC has reported. ... After Partriarch Ilia II promised at the end of 2007 to personally baptise any child born to parents of more than two children, the number of babies born jumped by nearly 20 percent last year.

Comment1:
The observation is:

At time t1: Partriarch makes promise
At time t2: Births increase

Cause must precede effect, and effect must follow cause. This does not mean that any event at time t1, and any event at time t2 are related as cause and effect. To argue this way is to commit the fallacy Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc (Latin for: after this therefore because this.

Quote2:
Mrs Pati Bluashvili, who with her husband Giorgi just had a fourth child, a boy named Giviko, said: "When he announced that he would baptise any child born to parents with at least two children already, we could not resist the opportunity to have another baby. To have a child baptised by the Partriarch is so very special."

Comment2:
To show causation, a mechanism must be identified. In this case:

If (baby), then (Partriarch baptism)

The mechanism is a teleological (appeal to consequences) argument. The benefit of (Partriarch baptism) overwhelm all possible consequential harms, hence leading to the conclusion (decision) to have a baby. But this is just one couple. Is this couple's thinking typical of all Georgian couples?

Quote3:
Mr Giorgi Vashadze, the head of Georgia's civil registry, said the Partriarch's incentive probably did play a part in the jump from 48,000 babies born in 2007 to 57,000 last year, but the rise in average household incomes was undoubtedly a significant factor as well. "Who is now creating families? People who five years ago were out of work," he told BBC. "Previously, they had no income. They could not get married. Today, they are working. They have salaries. ... So I think this is a major factor."

Comment3:
Another explanation is proposed: higher incomes, which make a baby affordable. So:

If (baby), then (affordable)

(Affordable) is proposed as the major benefit resulting in the decision to have a baby.

Quote4:
"Faith is getting stronger," Church spokesman Irakli Kadagishvili told BBC. "(The Partriarch's incentive) was the only stimulus most parents needed if they were already thinking about having more children."

Comment4:
The (Patriarch baptism) thesis is generalised as a "tipping point" factor. Can this account for an increase of 9,000 births? Note that the (affordable) factor is not rebutted.