How to be a leader

An experienced political pollster discusses the traits of successful leadership.

Source: The Straits Times, 26/3/9, p.A23
Headline: A primer on leadership
Writer: Thomas L. Friedman

Quote1:
Stan Greenberg, one of America's most experienced pollsters, sums up the key lesson he learned polling for Bill Clinton, Nelson Mandela, Ehud Barak and Tony Blair: "Bold leaders in tumultuous times always have at least one crash." ... What distinguishes the best leaders, he says, is that they learn from their crashes, adjust, persist and succeed.

Comment1:
To say that the best leaders succeed is a truism -- it is true by definition. It is not informative. What is of interest is what did these people learn from their crashes that helped them succeed as leaders.

Quote2:
One of his most vivid memories was trying to judge how voters would react to Mr Clinton breaking his oft-stated promise to cut middle class taxes, right after his 1992 election. They held focus groups in New Jersey. ... "They didn't care about his specific promises," said Mr Greenberg. "They wanted the new president to act in the long term economic interests of the country. They wanted to make sure everyone was part of the solution. ... Lesson: "Don't be too literal about campaign promises," said Mr Greenberg. "There is a lot of scope for governing, if the people think you're acting in the country's long term interests, and that you're working for them."

Comment2:
The conclusion (lesson) is a generalisation. The reason is focus groups in New Jersey. Is this sufficient grounds?

Quote3:
Labour had been out of power for 18 years. It got back in thanks to Mr Blair's ability to assure voters they could trust Labour to be fiscally prudent and, simultaneously, to upgrade Britain's decrepit government hospitals and schools. ... Three years into his term, the lack of new investment became obvious. ... Mr Blair crashed on the issue of trust. ... Lesson: Be honest with the public early on when facing huge challenges. They will let you off the hook on a literal campaign promise -- if you level with them early about the difficulties and how long it will take to see progress.

Comment3:
Story No. 2; generalised lesson No. 2. Is this sufficient grounds?

Quote4:
Mr Ehud Barak became Israel's premier in 1999, and a pillar of his campaign was that Jerusalem must remain Israel's eternal, undivided capital. Yet, at Camp David with President Clinton in 2000, Mr Barak offered the Palestinians a division of Jerusalem. What was most striking, said Mr Greenberg, was how readily the Israeli public accepted that shift. ... Lesson: "Nothing," said Mr Greenberg, "is off the table for a leader who wants to make a bold move" in the fundamental interest of the country.

Comment4:
Story No. 3; generalised lesson No. 3. Is this sufficient grounds?

Quote5:
Finally, Mr Nelson Mandela. Four years after he became South Africa's president in 1994, "people were demoralised about the lack of change and felt that the African National Congress (ANC) had betrayed its promise," said Mr Greenberg. ... That was hard for liberation movement leaders to swallow, but the humble citizens wanted their now remote leaders to acknowledge their plight. Lesson: Mr Mandela was humble enough to say that we haven't brought enough change -- that even he was disappointed -- without threatening ANC's claim to govern. -- NYT.

Comment5:
Story No. 4; generalised lesson No. 4.

Human behaviour is notoriously fickle. We should not take four instances, and from those generalise over time and place. It would commit the fallacy Hasty Generalisation.

Even if many instances show the same feature, there is still another, greater, fallacy being committed. Every cancer patient drinks water. Is water then the cause of cancer? By the above logic, yes. Yet we know it is not -- because we know lots of water drinkers who do not have cancer. We need to also survey people with these alleged leadership traits -- to see if they become successful leaders.

END