Brexit is not that complicated

There has been all too much confusion over Brexit. It is really quite simple.

We begin with the analogy of someone resigning from a club. At the end of the period of notice, all of that person's rights and obligations vis-a-vis the club abruptly ends. The relation between that person and the club after that date will be that of a stranger and the club, unless a new relation is formed.

Now carry this analogy over to Britain and European Union (EU).

The two-year period of notice will begin once Article 50 is invoked. For the following two years, the relation (comprising rights and obligations) between Britain and EU will be precisely as it was before the referendum. This relation will abruptly end on the last day of that two-year period of notice. On the day after that last day, Britain will be a "stranger" country to EU, and will henceforth need to form a new relation with it -- failing which it will remain a "stranger" country to EU.

However, the two-year period of notice gives Britain and EU a chance to decide what that new relation will be, prior to that relation coming into force. The discussions to determine this new relation should therefore be on the basis of a "stranger" country setting up business links with EU, rather than on the basis of "terms of exit" from EU.

As for what the eventual relation will be, that will depend on the respective skills of the negotiators. It is no use making business and personal decisions on the basis of hopes, fears, and speculations. For at least (since we do not know when Article 50 will be invoked) the next two years, the United Kingdom is a member of European Union.

It really is quite (meaning very) simple.

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