There has been all too much confusion over Brexit. It is really quite simple.
We begin with the analogy of someone resigning from a club. At the end of the period of notice, all of that person's rights and obligations vis-a-vis the club abruptly ends. The relation between that person and the club after that date will be that of a stranger and the club, unless a new relation is formed.
Now carry this analogy over to Britain and European Union (EU).
The two-year period of notice will begin once Article 50 is invoked. For the following two years, the relation (comprising rights and obligations) between Britain and EU will be precisely as it was before the referendum. This relation will abruptly end on the last day of that two-year period of notice. On the day after that last day, Britain will be a "stranger" country to EU, and will henceforth need to form a new relation with it -- failing which it will remain a "stranger" country to EU.
However, the two-year period of notice gives Britain and EU a chance to decide what that new relation will be, prior to that relation coming into force. The discussions to determine this new relation should therefore be on the basis of a "stranger" country setting up business links with EU, rather than on the basis of "terms of exit" from EU.
As for what the eventual relation will be, that will depend on the respective skills of the negotiators. It is no use making business and personal decisions on the basis of hopes, fears, and speculations. For at least (since we do not know when Article 50 will be invoked) the next two years, the United Kingdom is a member of European Union.
It really is quite (meaning very) simple.
END
Tuesday, 12 July 2016
Thursday, 7 April 2016
Considering death
This post is precipitated by Clara Chow's column "A young boy afraid of death" in The Straits Times on 4 April 2016.
In that column, Ms Chow related how her 10-year-old son was suffering from thanatophobia (fear of death) for some time. She tried many things, and eventually managed to placate the boy.
I have some reflections on the topic.
Given that I am now convinced of materialism, and given also our knowledge of what happens to all matter, including the matter of other dead persons, what happens after death is quite clear: our bodies decay (if buried) or are incinerated (if cremated). There is nothing mental to survive this material termination. The complex material that gives rise to our self-perception of consciousness becomes simply no more -- and so consciousness also becomes no more.
But let us presume there is a consciousness, and that it somehow continues. We do not know the manner of its continuation. Various cultures have various myths of the passage of consciousness after death, but nobody can declare definitive knowledge. So what is the best metaphor for death?
I think the best metaphor is that of being offered a free one-way air ticket to a mystery destination. I think it's quite an accurate metaphor. Depending on whether one is an adventurous or risk-averse person, one would find this exciting or fearful. In any case, we should dispense with the usual images of "big sleep", "reincarnation", "wine bar in the sky", "pearly gates" etc. Nobody knows for sure if any image is true -- hence the metaphor of "mystery destination" is appropriate.
So either it is oblivion, or an adventure (or mishap). But as Confucius said: "Nobody knows, so let us not fret about it." Or better yet, learn to think of it as an adventure. That is, if you cannot accept oblivion, which is what really happens.
Cheers.
In that column, Ms Chow related how her 10-year-old son was suffering from thanatophobia (fear of death) for some time. She tried many things, and eventually managed to placate the boy.
I have some reflections on the topic.
Given that I am now convinced of materialism, and given also our knowledge of what happens to all matter, including the matter of other dead persons, what happens after death is quite clear: our bodies decay (if buried) or are incinerated (if cremated). There is nothing mental to survive this material termination. The complex material that gives rise to our self-perception of consciousness becomes simply no more -- and so consciousness also becomes no more.
But let us presume there is a consciousness, and that it somehow continues. We do not know the manner of its continuation. Various cultures have various myths of the passage of consciousness after death, but nobody can declare definitive knowledge. So what is the best metaphor for death?
I think the best metaphor is that of being offered a free one-way air ticket to a mystery destination. I think it's quite an accurate metaphor. Depending on whether one is an adventurous or risk-averse person, one would find this exciting or fearful. In any case, we should dispense with the usual images of "big sleep", "reincarnation", "wine bar in the sky", "pearly gates" etc. Nobody knows for sure if any image is true -- hence the metaphor of "mystery destination" is appropriate.
So either it is oblivion, or an adventure (or mishap). But as Confucius said: "Nobody knows, so let us not fret about it." Or better yet, learn to think of it as an adventure. That is, if you cannot accept oblivion, which is what really happens.
Cheers.
Friday, 1 April 2016
Machines "not something to be feared"?
On Friday, 25 March 2016, The Straits Times ran a story with the headline "Machines 'not something to be feared'". The basis of this headline was an interview with Mr Demis Hassabis, co-founder and chief executive of DeepMind, the company that created AlphaGo, which the previous week beat world Go champion Lee Se Dol 4-1 (correction from earlier post). I disagree with Mr Hassabis' prognosis.
Mr Hassabis says: "In the next five years, it would be great to see machine-learning [the distinctive achievement of AlphaGo] applied to healthcare in a deep way for medical diagnosis." Well, that's one scenario.
What about the dystopian scenario that machines are "something to be feared" and will "take over the world and wipe out humanity"? Here is Mr Hassabis' response: "There are these science fiction scenarios but they're just science fiction. I don't think we should confuse Hollywood and what's really reality."
Science fiction has a habit of coming true. Witness telephones, television, satellites, and yes, even computers. Relegating the dystopian scenario to science fiction actually supports the dystopian scenario rather than rebuts it.
The entirely material AlphaGo computer demonstrated all the intuitiveness, creativity and innovation -- all up till now declared as uniquely mental attributes -- needed to defeat a human mind. The machine has passed the Turing Test. The machine is intelligent, never mind the prefix "artificial".
At some level of complexity, the machine may well declare as Descartes did some centuries ago: "Cogito ergo sum", "I think, therefore, I am". The machine will declare its intelligent consciousness, and hence its existence.
It is a short logical step from that to declaring that it is alive, that it is a life, that it has rights. After all, the argument is widely accepted that animals have rights just because they are alive and feel pain, the much stronger argument will be that an intelligent and conscious "machine" (a word soon to be a misnomer) also is alive and has rights.
What philosophical recourse will there then be to distinguish human life from machine life? To appeal to physical form would not just be facetious; indeed, it is easily overcome -- with improved robot design. Japan, for example, is replete with humanoid robots performing previously human functions.
We already have CAD, computer-aided design. With further development of machine-learning, the day will come when we will witness computer design and manufacture. Let me put this bluntly: Machines will learn to reproduce themselves. A new species will well and truly arrive on Planet Earth.
Cue Darwin and evolution. Call this dystopia? No, it is the future.
Cheers.
Mr Hassabis says: "In the next five years, it would be great to see machine-learning [the distinctive achievement of AlphaGo] applied to healthcare in a deep way for medical diagnosis." Well, that's one scenario.
What about the dystopian scenario that machines are "something to be feared" and will "take over the world and wipe out humanity"? Here is Mr Hassabis' response: "There are these science fiction scenarios but they're just science fiction. I don't think we should confuse Hollywood and what's really reality."
Science fiction has a habit of coming true. Witness telephones, television, satellites, and yes, even computers. Relegating the dystopian scenario to science fiction actually supports the dystopian scenario rather than rebuts it.
The entirely material AlphaGo computer demonstrated all the intuitiveness, creativity and innovation -- all up till now declared as uniquely mental attributes -- needed to defeat a human mind. The machine has passed the Turing Test. The machine is intelligent, never mind the prefix "artificial".
At some level of complexity, the machine may well declare as Descartes did some centuries ago: "Cogito ergo sum", "I think, therefore, I am". The machine will declare its intelligent consciousness, and hence its existence.
It is a short logical step from that to declaring that it is alive, that it is a life, that it has rights. After all, the argument is widely accepted that animals have rights just because they are alive and feel pain, the much stronger argument will be that an intelligent and conscious "machine" (a word soon to be a misnomer) also is alive and has rights.
What philosophical recourse will there then be to distinguish human life from machine life? To appeal to physical form would not just be facetious; indeed, it is easily overcome -- with improved robot design. Japan, for example, is replete with humanoid robots performing previously human functions.
We already have CAD, computer-aided design. With further development of machine-learning, the day will come when we will witness computer design and manufacture. Let me put this bluntly: Machines will learn to reproduce themselves. A new species will well and truly arrive on Planet Earth.
Cue Darwin and evolution. Call this dystopia? No, it is the future.
Cheers.
Wednesday, 16 March 2016
Philosophy problem solved -- at last
The big philosophy news is: Computer AlphaGo has conclusively beaten Go master (human) Lee Se Dol 4-0.
The media has billed this event as a machine vs man contest. This is not what interests me here. Instead, to me, this event has finally answered the age old philosophy problem of metaphysics: Does reality comprise matter, mind or both? This question has now been answered. Reality is matter -- only.
The game of Go (also called Weiqi) is often billed as the most strategic of games, even more sophisticated and complex than Western chess. It is a game that calls for not just strategy, but also intuition and creativity -- the very qualities that have been expounded as being uniquely mental, rather than material.
Yet now the world's foremost Go master Lee Se Dol has conclusively been beaten 4-0 by a computer -- a thing comprising everything material and nothing mental. AlphaGo's strategy can be said to have come from its new ability to "learn" from analysing millions of Go games in its database. But where did AlphaGo's intuition and creativity -- the very qualities said to be integral to mastering the game -- come from? The machine comprised only things material. Even its software are no more than assemblies of digital states, which are also material in nature. There is no thing mental in AlphaGo.
Hence, the conclusion is inescapable. Whatever qualities that have up till now been regarded as mental have been bested by something that is everything material.
The mental is material. Mind is matter. It is settled.
The remaining question now is: What configuration/s of matter does it take to pass off as "mental"? We now need to enquire into the camouflage, rather than the entity.
As for machine vs man, we have just witnessed the birth of the next step in evolution -- Homo machina. It will be a specie without mercy or grace (AlphaGo had already conclusively beaten Lee 3-1; a human combatant would have let the end score be a face-saving 3-2; there was no need to twist the knife after fatality is assured).
Of course, it took a human to create it. Thanks.
Cheers.
The media has billed this event as a machine vs man contest. This is not what interests me here. Instead, to me, this event has finally answered the age old philosophy problem of metaphysics: Does reality comprise matter, mind or both? This question has now been answered. Reality is matter -- only.
The game of Go (also called Weiqi) is often billed as the most strategic of games, even more sophisticated and complex than Western chess. It is a game that calls for not just strategy, but also intuition and creativity -- the very qualities that have been expounded as being uniquely mental, rather than material.
Yet now the world's foremost Go master Lee Se Dol has conclusively been beaten 4-0 by a computer -- a thing comprising everything material and nothing mental. AlphaGo's strategy can be said to have come from its new ability to "learn" from analysing millions of Go games in its database. But where did AlphaGo's intuition and creativity -- the very qualities said to be integral to mastering the game -- come from? The machine comprised only things material. Even its software are no more than assemblies of digital states, which are also material in nature. There is no thing mental in AlphaGo.
Hence, the conclusion is inescapable. Whatever qualities that have up till now been regarded as mental have been bested by something that is everything material.
The mental is material. Mind is matter. It is settled.
The remaining question now is: What configuration/s of matter does it take to pass off as "mental"? We now need to enquire into the camouflage, rather than the entity.
As for machine vs man, we have just witnessed the birth of the next step in evolution -- Homo machina. It will be a specie without mercy or grace (AlphaGo had already conclusively beaten Lee 3-1; a human combatant would have let the end score be a face-saving 3-2; there was no need to twist the knife after fatality is assured).
Of course, it took a human to create it. Thanks.
Cheers.
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