That was the headline of a recent comment piece. But that is not the real thrust of the article. We examine the piece.
Source: Today, 23/5/9, p.28
Headline: What makes a good CEO?
Writer: David Brooks
Quote1
...Steven Kaplan, Mark Klebanov and Morten Sorensen recently completed a study called Which CEO Characteristics and Abilities Matter? ... They found that strong people skills correlate loosely or not at all with being a good CEO. ... What mattered ... were execution and organisational skills. ...
Comment1
Well, that is the finding of one study. But is this the general case? We need corroboration.
Quote2
These results are consistent with a lot of work that's been done over the past few decades. In 2001, Jim Collins published a best-selling study called Good to Great. He found that the best CEOs were not the flamboyant visionaries. They were humble, self-effacing, diligent and resolute souls who found the thing they were really good at and did it over and over again. That same year Murray Barrick, Michael Mount and Timothy Judge surveyed a century's worth of research into business leadership. They too found that extroversion, agreeableness and openness to new experience did not correlate well with CEO success. Instead, what mattered was emotional stability and, most of all, conscientiousness -- which means being dependable, making plans and following through on them. ...
Comment2
We have other studies with similar findings. We are ready to generalise.
Quote3
What these traits do add up to is a certain ideal personality type. The CEOs that are most likely to succeed are humble, diffident, relentless and a bit uni-dimensional. ...
Comment3
This is the generalisation. But what is important for the real argument in this comment piece is what is not well correlated with the successful CEO: strong people skills, flamboyant visionaries, extroversion, agreeableness and openness to new experience.
Quote4
For [this] reason, business and politics do not blend well. Business leaders tend to perform poorly in Washington, while political leaders possess precisely those talents -- charisma, charm, personal skills -- that are of such limited value when it comes to corporate execution. ...
Comment4
Political talents are precisely those that make for less-than-successful CEOs.
Quote5
We now have an administration freely interposing itself in the management culture of industry after industry. ... When Washington is a profit centre, CEOs are forced to adopt the traits of politicians. That is the insidious way that other nations have lost their competitive edge. -- NYT.
Comment5
Finally, we come to the real argument of this comment piece.
Premiss1: If (politicians interpose in management), then (CEOs adopt political traits)
Premiss2: If (CEOs adopt political traits), then (less successful CEOs)
Premiss3: If (less successful CEOs), then (nation loses competitive edge)
Conclusion1: Hence, If (politicians interpose in management), then (nation loses competitive edge) [To Premiss4]
Premiss4: If (politicians interpose in management), then (nation loses competitive edge) [from Conclusion1]
Premiss5: Not-(nation loses competitive edge) [suppressed]
Conclusion2: Hence, Not-(politicians interpose in management) [suppressed]
The real, but unstated, thrust of this comment piece is that politicians should not interpose themselves in industry management.
END
Thursday, 28 May 2009
Monday, 25 May 2009
Medical treatment and the law
Two recent cases highlight the question of the grounds for enforcing or refusing medical treatment.
Source: The Straits Times, 22/5/9, p.B11
Headline: Hunt for mum, sick boy who is avoiding chemo
Quote1
SLEEPY EYE (Minnesota): A nationwide police hunt is under way in the United States for a mother [Colleen Hauser] who fled with her cancer-stricken 13-year-old son [Daniel] rather than consent to chemotherapy they say violates their religious beliefs. ...
Comment1
The premiss here is that religious beliefs take precedence over medical advice.
Quote2
The Hausers had been ordered to appear before a judge on Tuesday for a hearing to consider chemotherapy. A warrant was issued for Colleen Hauser's arrest when she and her son failed to show up. ... AP, AFP.
Comment2
Note that the court hearing is to consider chemotherapy. The court has not yet made its decision. Hence, the warrant is for the Hausers to attend the hearing, and not for them to submit to treatment.
BUT in another case, the court did make a decision.
Source: The Straits Times, 22/5/9, p.B8
Headline: Korean court upholds 'right to die'
Quote3
SEOUL: The Supreme Court ... supported a request by the family of [brain-dead and comatose] 76-year-old Kim Ok Kyung that she be allowed to die with dignity. ... In the majority decision released yesterday, Chief Justice Lee Yong Hoon said ... treatment could be stopped by making a presumption about the wishes of the patient. Maintaining a patient in a brain-dead state damaged human dignity when there was no chance of recovery. ...
Comment3
It is important here to discern the logical links.
If ((patient brain dead) & (no chance of recovery) & (maintain patient)),
then (damage human dignity)
But what about the patient's wishes?
Quote4
In the current case, he noted, the woman had told her family she did not want to be kept alive artificially if her hospital treatment ran into problems. "We must respect the patient's will because forced life-sustaining treatment may damage human dignity." ... AFP, Reuters, AP.
Comment4
The patient had expressed her wish to be not on life support. The remaining logical links are:
If ((damage human dignity) & (patient declines life support)), then (stop life support)
We can now assemble the whole argument:
Premiss1: If ((patient brain dead) & (no chance of recovery) & (maintain patient)),
then (damage human dignity)
Premiss2: ((patient brain dead) & (no chance of recovery) & (maintain patient))
Conclusion1: Hence, (damage human dignity) [to Premiss4]
Premiss3: If ((damage human dignity) & (patient declines life support)), then (stop life support)
Premiss4: (damage human dignity) [from Conclusion1]
Premiss5: (patient declines life support)
Conclusion2: Hence, (stop life support)
We have a problem. We have (maintain patient) in Premiss2, and (stop life support) in Conclusion2. This is a contradiction. The argument is faulty. We must reformulate the links.
Premiss1: If ((patient brain dead) & (no chance of recovery) & (patient declines life support)), then (If (maintain patient), then (damage human dignity))
Premiss2: ((patient brain dead) & (no chance of recovery) & (patient declines life support))
Conclusion1: Hence, (If (maintain patient), then (damage human dignity)) [to Premiss3]
Premiss3: If (maintain patient), then (damage human dignity)) [from Conclusion1]
Premiss4: Not-(damage human dignity)
Conclusion2: Hence, not-(maintain patient) [=(stop life support)]
The argument is now clear.
Note that in both cases, we do not have the doctors' arguments available for analysis.
END
Source: The Straits Times, 22/5/9, p.B11
Headline: Hunt for mum, sick boy who is avoiding chemo
Quote1
SLEEPY EYE (Minnesota): A nationwide police hunt is under way in the United States for a mother [Colleen Hauser] who fled with her cancer-stricken 13-year-old son [Daniel] rather than consent to chemotherapy they say violates their religious beliefs. ...
Comment1
The premiss here is that religious beliefs take precedence over medical advice.
Quote2
The Hausers had been ordered to appear before a judge on Tuesday for a hearing to consider chemotherapy. A warrant was issued for Colleen Hauser's arrest when she and her son failed to show up. ... AP, AFP.
Comment2
Note that the court hearing is to consider chemotherapy. The court has not yet made its decision. Hence, the warrant is for the Hausers to attend the hearing, and not for them to submit to treatment.
BUT in another case, the court did make a decision.
Source: The Straits Times, 22/5/9, p.B8
Headline: Korean court upholds 'right to die'
Quote3
SEOUL: The Supreme Court ... supported a request by the family of [brain-dead and comatose] 76-year-old Kim Ok Kyung that she be allowed to die with dignity. ... In the majority decision released yesterday, Chief Justice Lee Yong Hoon said ... treatment could be stopped by making a presumption about the wishes of the patient. Maintaining a patient in a brain-dead state damaged human dignity when there was no chance of recovery. ...
Comment3
It is important here to discern the logical links.
If ((patient brain dead) & (no chance of recovery) & (maintain patient)),
then (damage human dignity)
But what about the patient's wishes?
Quote4
In the current case, he noted, the woman had told her family she did not want to be kept alive artificially if her hospital treatment ran into problems. "We must respect the patient's will because forced life-sustaining treatment may damage human dignity." ... AFP, Reuters, AP.
Comment4
The patient had expressed her wish to be not on life support. The remaining logical links are:
If ((damage human dignity) & (patient declines life support)), then (stop life support)
We can now assemble the whole argument:
Premiss1: If ((patient brain dead) & (no chance of recovery) & (maintain patient)),
then (damage human dignity)
Premiss2: ((patient brain dead) & (no chance of recovery) & (maintain patient))
Conclusion1: Hence, (damage human dignity) [to Premiss4]
Premiss3: If ((damage human dignity) & (patient declines life support)), then (stop life support)
Premiss4: (damage human dignity) [from Conclusion1]
Premiss5: (patient declines life support)
Conclusion2: Hence, (stop life support)
We have a problem. We have (maintain patient) in Premiss2, and (stop life support) in Conclusion2. This is a contradiction. The argument is faulty. We must reformulate the links.
Premiss1: If ((patient brain dead) & (no chance of recovery) & (patient declines life support)), then (If (maintain patient), then (damage human dignity))
Premiss2: ((patient brain dead) & (no chance of recovery) & (patient declines life support))
Conclusion1: Hence, (If (maintain patient), then (damage human dignity)) [to Premiss3]
Premiss3: If (maintain patient), then (damage human dignity)) [from Conclusion1]
Premiss4: Not-(damage human dignity)
Conclusion2: Hence, not-(maintain patient) [=(stop life support)]
The argument is now clear.
Note that in both cases, we do not have the doctors' arguments available for analysis.
END
What does the new revolution need?
One writer says that round table revolutions must be accompanied by truth commissions. We look for his argument.
Source: The Straits Times, 22/5/9, p.A18
Headline: Round tables and truth commissions
Writer: Timothy Garton Ash
Quote1
WARSAW: [Poland's] pioneering round table talks in early 1989 [was] the first in communist Europe. ... [A] large bagel shaped [table] is the symbol of the new kind of peaceful, negotiated revolution which in 1989 superseded the old, violent style of 1789. The round table replaces the guillotine. ... The new anti-Jacobin model of revolution, with its surreal encounters of former prisoners and their former jailers and torturers, requires painful, morally distasteful compromise. There is no great moment of revolutionary catharsis. The line between bad past and good future is necessarily blurred. ... Because that is so, the problems of the past come back to haunt you. ...
Comment1
The "surreal encounters" of this new model of revolution has two consequences:
1. painful, morally distasteful compromise
2. blur line between bad past and good future
These two consequences produce a third consequence:
3. problems of the past return
Quote2
That is why, 20 years on, I am more than ever convinced that the necessary complement to a round table is a truth commission. ...
Comment2
"I am more than ever convinced" is a declaration of intense belief. One can intensely believe something false eg. holding hands cause pregnancy. This declaration is not an argument.
Why is a truth commission a "necessary complement" to a round table? How does "problems of the past return" lead to this? We await the arguments.
Quote3
Where, as a result of the negotiated model of revolution, you cannot get justice, you can at least ask for truth. ...
Comment3
Truth is sought as an inferior alternative to justice. This does not explain why a truth commission is a "necessary complement" to a round table. Intuitively, an inferior alternative is not the same thing as a necessary complement. The inferior alternative view also does not explain how "problems of the past return" leads to a "necessary complement".
Summary & Conclusion
The intended aim is to call for truth commissions to accompany round table revolutions. There is no clear argument for this position.
END
Source: The Straits Times, 22/5/9, p.A18
Headline: Round tables and truth commissions
Writer: Timothy Garton Ash
Quote1
WARSAW: [Poland's] pioneering round table talks in early 1989 [was] the first in communist Europe. ... [A] large bagel shaped [table] is the symbol of the new kind of peaceful, negotiated revolution which in 1989 superseded the old, violent style of 1789. The round table replaces the guillotine. ... The new anti-Jacobin model of revolution, with its surreal encounters of former prisoners and their former jailers and torturers, requires painful, morally distasteful compromise. There is no great moment of revolutionary catharsis. The line between bad past and good future is necessarily blurred. ... Because that is so, the problems of the past come back to haunt you. ...
Comment1
The "surreal encounters" of this new model of revolution has two consequences:
1. painful, morally distasteful compromise
2. blur line between bad past and good future
These two consequences produce a third consequence:
3. problems of the past return
Quote2
That is why, 20 years on, I am more than ever convinced that the necessary complement to a round table is a truth commission. ...
Comment2
"I am more than ever convinced" is a declaration of intense belief. One can intensely believe something false eg. holding hands cause pregnancy. This declaration is not an argument.
Why is a truth commission a "necessary complement" to a round table? How does "problems of the past return" lead to this? We await the arguments.
Quote3
Where, as a result of the negotiated model of revolution, you cannot get justice, you can at least ask for truth. ...
Comment3
Truth is sought as an inferior alternative to justice. This does not explain why a truth commission is a "necessary complement" to a round table. Intuitively, an inferior alternative is not the same thing as a necessary complement. The inferior alternative view also does not explain how "problems of the past return" leads to a "necessary complement".
Summary & Conclusion
The intended aim is to call for truth commissions to accompany round table revolutions. There is no clear argument for this position.
END
Tuesday, 19 May 2009
Where is the US dollar heading?
The US dollar is currently the world's major reserve currency. Can it hang on to this status? We examine the writer's argument.
Source: The Straits Times, 15/5/9, p.A18
Headline: Losing purchase: Greenback's future
Writer: By Nouriel Roubini
Quote1
Traditionally, empires that hold the global reserve currency are also net foreign creditors and net lenders. The British Empire declined -- and the pound lost its status as the main global reserve currency -- when Britain became a net debtor and a net borrower during World War II. The US is in a similar position today. It is running huge budget and trade deficits. ... The resulting downfall of the dollar may be only a matter of time.
Comment1
Here is the argument:
Reason: Britain net debtor, pound stops as reserve currency. US becoming net debtor.
Conclusion: Hence, US dollar will stop as reserve currency.
This is an argument from similarity, and will hold only up to the point of dissimilarity. There is no indication of dissimilarity. The argument holds.
Quote2
But what could replace it? The British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remain minor reserve currencies. Gold is still a barbaric relic whose value rises only when inflation is high.The euro is hobbled by concerns about the long-term viability of the European Monetary Union. That leaves the yuan. ...
Comment2
All alternatives to the yuan are not suited to be a reserve currency -- for vaious reasons. That leaves the yuan. This is a negative argument, that is, by elimination.
Quote3
China is a creditor country with large current account surpluses, a small budget deficit, much lower public debt as a share of gross domestic product than the US, and solid growth. ...
Comment3
China is a creditor country. That follows the argument from similarity in Comment1. The other factors mentioned here are not obviously relevant to the argument. This is a positive argument for the yuan becoming a reserve currency.
Quote4
At the moment, though, the yuan is far from ready to achieve reserve currency status. China would first have to ease restrictions on money entering and leaving the country, make its currency fully convertible for such transactions, continue its domestic financial reforms and make its bond markets more liquid. It would take a long time for the yuan to become a reserve currency. ...
Comment4
There are other necessary conditions to be met before the yuan can be a reserve currency. These necessary conditions are asserted, not argued for. [Meanwhile, the US dollar remains the only major reserve currency.]
Quote5
This decline of the dollar might take more than a decade, but it could happen even sooner if the Americans do not get their financial house in order. The US must rein in spending and borrowing, and pursue growth that is not based on asset and credit bubbles. Americans need to shift their priorities. This will entail investing in their crumbling infrastructure, alternative and renewable resources and productive human capital -- rather than in unnecessary housing and toxic financial innovation. This will be the only wayto slow down the decline of the dollar, and sustain America's influence in global affairs. ... NYT.
Comment5
"Rein in spending and borrowing" seems in line with making US less of a debtor nation, which follows the model in Comment1. All the other measures do not seem to follow this model. No other argument is offered to support them -- they are merely asserted. Thus, it is left to the reader to simply agree or disagree.
END
Source: The Straits Times, 15/5/9, p.A18
Headline: Losing purchase: Greenback's future
Writer: By Nouriel Roubini
Quote1
Traditionally, empires that hold the global reserve currency are also net foreign creditors and net lenders. The British Empire declined -- and the pound lost its status as the main global reserve currency -- when Britain became a net debtor and a net borrower during World War II. The US is in a similar position today. It is running huge budget and trade deficits. ... The resulting downfall of the dollar may be only a matter of time.
Comment1
Here is the argument:
Reason: Britain net debtor, pound stops as reserve currency. US becoming net debtor.
Conclusion: Hence, US dollar will stop as reserve currency.
This is an argument from similarity, and will hold only up to the point of dissimilarity. There is no indication of dissimilarity. The argument holds.
Quote2
But what could replace it? The British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remain minor reserve currencies. Gold is still a barbaric relic whose value rises only when inflation is high.The euro is hobbled by concerns about the long-term viability of the European Monetary Union. That leaves the yuan. ...
Comment2
All alternatives to the yuan are not suited to be a reserve currency -- for vaious reasons. That leaves the yuan. This is a negative argument, that is, by elimination.
Quote3
China is a creditor country with large current account surpluses, a small budget deficit, much lower public debt as a share of gross domestic product than the US, and solid growth. ...
Comment3
China is a creditor country. That follows the argument from similarity in Comment1. The other factors mentioned here are not obviously relevant to the argument. This is a positive argument for the yuan becoming a reserve currency.
Quote4
At the moment, though, the yuan is far from ready to achieve reserve currency status. China would first have to ease restrictions on money entering and leaving the country, make its currency fully convertible for such transactions, continue its domestic financial reforms and make its bond markets more liquid. It would take a long time for the yuan to become a reserve currency. ...
Comment4
There are other necessary conditions to be met before the yuan can be a reserve currency. These necessary conditions are asserted, not argued for. [Meanwhile, the US dollar remains the only major reserve currency.]
Quote5
This decline of the dollar might take more than a decade, but it could happen even sooner if the Americans do not get their financial house in order. The US must rein in spending and borrowing, and pursue growth that is not based on asset and credit bubbles. Americans need to shift their priorities. This will entail investing in their crumbling infrastructure, alternative and renewable resources and productive human capital -- rather than in unnecessary housing and toxic financial innovation. This will be the only wayto slow down the decline of the dollar, and sustain America's influence in global affairs. ... NYT.
Comment5
"Rein in spending and borrowing" seems in line with making US less of a debtor nation, which follows the model in Comment1. All the other measures do not seem to follow this model. No other argument is offered to support them -- they are merely asserted. Thus, it is left to the reader to simply agree or disagree.
END
Whence Asian property stocks?
Are Asian property stocks expected to rise or fall? We examine the arguments.
Source: Today, 15/5/9, p.B7
Headline: Amid the signs of recovery ... Is now the time to invest in Asian property stocks?
Writer: By Frederick Lim
Quote1
The 20- to 30-percent rally in Asian property stocks in the past few months is not sustainable, say experts. ...
Comment1
An assertion is made that there has been a rally in Asian property stocks. This is a statement of fact. We take this as true. But experts say this rally is not sustainable. We want to know why.
Quote2
"In the physical property market, values are clearly falling in most, if not all, markets," said Mr Patrick Sumner, head of Property Securities at Henderson Global Investors. ...
Comment2
This is a comment on the values in the physical property market, rather than the values in property stocks. No explicit link between physical property value and property stock value is provided. We shall not speculate as to any such link.
Quote3
According to Henderson, the recent rally in property securities has been driven by positive sentiment in the equity markets. ...
Comment3
This explains the rally in property stocks, but does not address the question of sustainability.
Quote4
Yanlord, a high-end property developer based in China, said certain segments of the Chinese real estate market are showing signs of recovery. "We have seen our transaction volumes increase from about 200 million yuan in November and December last year to 1 billion yuan ($215 million) in March this year," said Ms Michelle Sze, head of Investor Relations at Yanlord. ...
Comment4
The intended argument here is inductive:
Reason: Transaction volumes have risen
Conclusion: Hence, transaction volumes will continue to rise [suppressed]
Again, this relates to the physical property market, not property stocks. Again, we will not speculate as to any link.
Quote5
Mr Justin Chiu, executive director of Hong Kong developer Cheung Kong Holdings, said ... "As real estate fluctuates in tandem with economic cycles, the current downtrend in Asia has opened up opportunities for favourable entry." ...
Comment5
Here's the argument:
Premiss1: If (economy down), then (real estate down)
Premiss2: (economy down)
Conclusion: Hence, (real estate down)
The argument form is the valid Modus Ponens. Premiss2 is a well-known fact. Is Premiss1 true? In any case, it is not clear whether physical property or property stocks are referred to.
Quote6
"Singapore aims to become a global city focusing on wealth management, high-end talent and lifestyle. Does this strategy have legs? I, for one, am very confident," said Mr Olivier Lim, group chief financial officer at CapitaLand.
Comment6
Again, it is not clear whether physical property or property stocks are referred to.
Summary & Conclusion
No clear argument has been offered to support the claim that the rally in Asian property stocks is not sustainable. Even assuming a positive correlation between physical property value and property stock value, Comments 2 and 5 are pessismistic, while Comments 4 and 6 are optimistic. The experts do not agree.
END
Source: Today, 15/5/9, p.B7
Headline: Amid the signs of recovery ... Is now the time to invest in Asian property stocks?
Writer: By Frederick Lim
Quote1
The 20- to 30-percent rally in Asian property stocks in the past few months is not sustainable, say experts. ...
Comment1
An assertion is made that there has been a rally in Asian property stocks. This is a statement of fact. We take this as true. But experts say this rally is not sustainable. We want to know why.
Quote2
"In the physical property market, values are clearly falling in most, if not all, markets," said Mr Patrick Sumner, head of Property Securities at Henderson Global Investors. ...
Comment2
This is a comment on the values in the physical property market, rather than the values in property stocks. No explicit link between physical property value and property stock value is provided. We shall not speculate as to any such link.
Quote3
According to Henderson, the recent rally in property securities has been driven by positive sentiment in the equity markets. ...
Comment3
This explains the rally in property stocks, but does not address the question of sustainability.
Quote4
Yanlord, a high-end property developer based in China, said certain segments of the Chinese real estate market are showing signs of recovery. "We have seen our transaction volumes increase from about 200 million yuan in November and December last year to 1 billion yuan ($215 million) in March this year," said Ms Michelle Sze, head of Investor Relations at Yanlord. ...
Comment4
The intended argument here is inductive:
Reason: Transaction volumes have risen
Conclusion: Hence, transaction volumes will continue to rise [suppressed]
Again, this relates to the physical property market, not property stocks. Again, we will not speculate as to any link.
Quote5
Mr Justin Chiu, executive director of Hong Kong developer Cheung Kong Holdings, said ... "As real estate fluctuates in tandem with economic cycles, the current downtrend in Asia has opened up opportunities for favourable entry." ...
Comment5
Here's the argument:
Premiss1: If (economy down), then (real estate down)
Premiss2: (economy down)
Conclusion: Hence, (real estate down)
The argument form is the valid Modus Ponens. Premiss2 is a well-known fact. Is Premiss1 true? In any case, it is not clear whether physical property or property stocks are referred to.
Quote6
"Singapore aims to become a global city focusing on wealth management, high-end talent and lifestyle. Does this strategy have legs? I, for one, am very confident," said Mr Olivier Lim, group chief financial officer at CapitaLand.
Comment6
Again, it is not clear whether physical property or property stocks are referred to.
Summary & Conclusion
No clear argument has been offered to support the claim that the rally in Asian property stocks is not sustainable. Even assuming a positive correlation between physical property value and property stock value, Comments 2 and 5 are pessismistic, while Comments 4 and 6 are optimistic. The experts do not agree.
END
Should sex theme park in China exist?
China's first sex theme park is slated to open in October. Objections are raised, as are defences. We examine the arguments.
Source: The Straits Times, 16/5/9, p.C8
Headline: Chinese sex theme park exposes raw nerve
Quote1
BEIJING: A sex theme park in south-west China ... exhibits sculptures of the human body and of giant genitals, as well as boasts a sex technique workshop. ... "Love Land", billed as China's first-ever sex theme park, is slated to open in Chongqing municipality in October, but detractors hope the project will never see the light of day. ...
Comment1
This theme park is the point of controversy. Should it exist?
Quote2
Manager Lu Xiaoqing said: "We are building the park for the good of the public ... to help adults enjoy a harmonious sex life. Sex is a taboo subject in China, but people really need to have more access to information about it."
Comment2
We have here an appeal to consequences, a teleological approach. Two benefits are listed:
1. Help adults enjoy a harmonious sex life
2. Give people access to information about sex
Quote3
The announcement of the park's official opening elicited numerous comments from Internet users, with the majority voicing opposition to it.
Comment3
Acquiescing to a majority opinion commits the fallacy Argumentum ad Populum (appeal to the gallery). The majority can be wrong (eg. at one time most people believed slavery was alright.) We must reject this argument.
Quote4
"These vulgar sex instalments will only make people sick," one netizen wrote. "These things are too exposed," Chongqing police officer Liu Daiwei said. "I will feel uncomfortable to look at them when other people are around." -- AFP, China Daily, Asia News Network.
Comment4
The appeal to consequences continues, this time harmful consequences:
3. Sickens some people
We can now collate the consequences:
1. Help adults enjoy a harmonious sex life
2. Give people access to information about sex
3. Sickens some people
Finally, we ask if there is a nett benefit or nett harm. If there is a nett benefit, the theme park should exist. If there is a nett harm, the theme park should not exist.
END
Source: The Straits Times, 16/5/9, p.C8
Headline: Chinese sex theme park exposes raw nerve
Quote1
BEIJING: A sex theme park in south-west China ... exhibits sculptures of the human body and of giant genitals, as well as boasts a sex technique workshop. ... "Love Land", billed as China's first-ever sex theme park, is slated to open in Chongqing municipality in October, but detractors hope the project will never see the light of day. ...
Comment1
This theme park is the point of controversy. Should it exist?
Quote2
Manager Lu Xiaoqing said: "We are building the park for the good of the public ... to help adults enjoy a harmonious sex life. Sex is a taboo subject in China, but people really need to have more access to information about it."
Comment2
We have here an appeal to consequences, a teleological approach. Two benefits are listed:
1. Help adults enjoy a harmonious sex life
2. Give people access to information about sex
Quote3
The announcement of the park's official opening elicited numerous comments from Internet users, with the majority voicing opposition to it.
Comment3
Acquiescing to a majority opinion commits the fallacy Argumentum ad Populum (appeal to the gallery). The majority can be wrong (eg. at one time most people believed slavery was alright.) We must reject this argument.
Quote4
"These vulgar sex instalments will only make people sick," one netizen wrote. "These things are too exposed," Chongqing police officer Liu Daiwei said. "I will feel uncomfortable to look at them when other people are around." -- AFP, China Daily, Asia News Network.
Comment4
The appeal to consequences continues, this time harmful consequences:
3. Sickens some people
We can now collate the consequences:
1. Help adults enjoy a harmonious sex life
2. Give people access to information about sex
3. Sickens some people
Finally, we ask if there is a nett benefit or nett harm. If there is a nett benefit, the theme park should exist. If there is a nett harm, the theme park should not exist.
END
Friday, 15 May 2009
What should the F&B sector do?
In a downturn, the F&B sector instinctively wants to cut costs. But experts advise against the obvious measures. We examine the arguments.
Source: The Straits Times, 13/5/9, p.B18
Headline: Don't swallow big discounts, F&B sector told
Writer: Linette Lai
Quote1
When a slowdown hits, F&B operators tend to react by trimming staff, reducing the quality of ingredients to save costs, and offering discounts to attract customers. But experts stressed that although these solutions seem to work in the short run, they are detrimental to the business over time. ...
Comment1
The conclusion is that these are the wrong measures to take. But why?
Quote2
"I think that drastic discounts are a vicious circle," said Mr Ang Kiam Meng, president of the Restaurant Association of Singapore. "When you don't have the discount any longer, your business will not be good again. ... If everyone decides to do this, the whole market decides to do this, we will sink deeper and deeper and there will be no turning back." Mr Ang added that he felt retrenchment was a big blow to the workers involved, and decreasing quality would simply affect a firm's reputation. ...
Comment2
The argument is teleological, that is, an appeal to consequences. They are:
1. If (discounts), then (no turning back)
2. If (retrenchment), then (blow to workers)
3. If (cut quality), then (damage reputation)
Unstated, but clearly intended, the three measures also have the benefit of saving costs.
Considering all the consequences, the harms outweigh the benefits. Therefore, the three measures should not be used.
Quote3
Mr Cheong Hai Poh, president of the Food and Beverage Managers' Association, felt that innovation was the key: "The most unique and challenging question ... is, 'How do you innovate?' Innovation will make your company stand out from the rest." Mr Ang felt that it was important to improve the quality of food and service, especially now as "it is an opportunity to increase customer loyalty".
Comment3
Having rejected some measures, we now turn to recommending some other measures. Again, the argument is teleological. Here are the consequences:
4. If (innovate), then (stand out)
5. If (improve quality), then (increase loyalty)
An unstated but clearly possible consequence of these measures is that costs will be incurred. Will the benefits outweigh the harm?
I am pleased to advise readers that the next philosophy cafe session will be held on 20 May at Nook, 15 Chu Lin Road, 8-10pm. Admission is free (but personal expenses for food and drink). All are welcome. (For more information on what a philosophy cafe is, please visit my website via the link on the left.)
END
Source: The Straits Times, 13/5/9, p.B18
Headline: Don't swallow big discounts, F&B sector told
Writer: Linette Lai
Quote1
When a slowdown hits, F&B operators tend to react by trimming staff, reducing the quality of ingredients to save costs, and offering discounts to attract customers. But experts stressed that although these solutions seem to work in the short run, they are detrimental to the business over time. ...
Comment1
The conclusion is that these are the wrong measures to take. But why?
Quote2
"I think that drastic discounts are a vicious circle," said Mr Ang Kiam Meng, president of the Restaurant Association of Singapore. "When you don't have the discount any longer, your business will not be good again. ... If everyone decides to do this, the whole market decides to do this, we will sink deeper and deeper and there will be no turning back." Mr Ang added that he felt retrenchment was a big blow to the workers involved, and decreasing quality would simply affect a firm's reputation. ...
Comment2
The argument is teleological, that is, an appeal to consequences. They are:
1. If (discounts), then (no turning back)
2. If (retrenchment), then (blow to workers)
3. If (cut quality), then (damage reputation)
Unstated, but clearly intended, the three measures also have the benefit of saving costs.
Considering all the consequences, the harms outweigh the benefits. Therefore, the three measures should not be used.
Quote3
Mr Cheong Hai Poh, president of the Food and Beverage Managers' Association, felt that innovation was the key: "The most unique and challenging question ... is, 'How do you innovate?' Innovation will make your company stand out from the rest." Mr Ang felt that it was important to improve the quality of food and service, especially now as "it is an opportunity to increase customer loyalty".
Comment3
Having rejected some measures, we now turn to recommending some other measures. Again, the argument is teleological. Here are the consequences:
4. If (innovate), then (stand out)
5. If (improve quality), then (increase loyalty)
An unstated but clearly possible consequence of these measures is that costs will be incurred. Will the benefits outweigh the harm?
I am pleased to advise readers that the next philosophy cafe session will be held on 20 May at Nook, 15 Chu Lin Road, 8-10pm. Admission is free (but personal expenses for food and drink). All are welcome. (For more information on what a philosophy cafe is, please visit my website via the link on the left.)
END
Should schools allow gender debates?
One newspaper reader replies to a letter calling for a suspension of sex education in schools. We analyse the writer's arguments.
Source: The Straits Times, 13/5/9, p.A18 (letters)
Headline: Instilling values a complex task
Writer: Warren Mark Liew
Quote1
I read with concern last Saturday's letter supporting the suspension of all sexuality education programmes offered by external agencies. ...
Comment
This identifies the topic of discussion.
Quote2
Censoring all alternative views would be contrary to the Ministry of Education's (MOE) push for critical thinking.
Comment2
Here is the argument, formally presented:
Premiss1: If (censor all), then (contrary to MOE)
Premiss2: Not-(contrary to MOE) [suppressed]
Conclusion: Hence, not-(censor all) [suppressed]
This is an enthymeme, a partial argument. We complete it above, supplying the suppressed portions as well.
The argument structure is the special case of the Modus Tollens known as reductio ad absurdum (reduce to absurdity). Censoring all alternative views has the consequence of being contrary to MOE's policy (Premiss1). This consequence is absurd, so we reject it (Premiss2). This leads us to the inevitable conclusion of rejecting (censor all).
Quote3
If argumentative essays at the secondary and junior college levels can encourage students to engage both sides of the "pro-life" and "pro-choice" abortion debate, why should not this balanced approach be similarly extended to the controversial topics of gender roles and sexual orientation?
Comment3
The question at the end of this quote is a rhetorical question, meaning it should be read as a statement: "this balanced approach should be similarly extended ...". In general, I advise against using rhetorical questions, as we cannot be sure the reader will understand its intention as a statement. Better to just make the statement.
This is an argument urging consistency (Premiss1):
Premiss1: If (abortion debate), then (gender debate)
Premiss2: (abortion debate)
Conclusion: Hence, (gender debate)
The argument structure is a Modus Ponens, hence valid. Premiss2 is a statement of fact. Premiss1 is the statement of consistency. If Premiss1 is held to be true, the conclusion follows.
Quote4
A mature curriculum for sexuality education should reflect not only the mainstream views and values of Singapore's society but also an educated awareness of alternative views based on well researched knowledge and information.
Comment4
This argument is premissed upon an understanding of what comprises a (mature curriculum), and on our desire for such.
Premiss1: If (mature curriculum), then (reflect all views)
Premiss2: (mature curriculum) [suppressed]
Conclusion: Hence, (reflect all views) [suppressed]
The argument form (technical term for argument structure) is the valid Modus Ponens. If the two premisses are held to be true, the conclusion follows.
Quote5
Perhaps, MOE would be wise to consult students for their views on what ought to be included in a 21st century sexuality education curriculum. Our children are often more precocious than we give them credit for.
Comment5
Premiss1: If (children precocious), then (consult students) [suppressed]
Premiss2: (children precocious)
Conclusion: Hence, (consult students)
Quote6
Silencing their views in favour of the dominant conservatism is itself a kind of prejudice against the ability of young people to think for themselves.
Comment6
This argument is, like that in Comment2, a Modus Tollens -- except that it is not the special case of reduction ad absurdum. Here is the argument, formally presented:
Premiss1: If (silence children), then (prejudice)
Premiss2: Not-(prejudice) [suppressed]
Conclusion: Hence, not-(silence children) [suppressed]
The argument is valid. If the premisses are held to be true, the conclusion follows.
Comment7
Note the different thrusts of the various arguments.
Comment2: Do not censor all views.
Comment3, 4: Allow gender debate, reflect all views.
Comment5: Consult children
Comment6: Do not silence children
Note also that 2, 3, 4 may not be compatible with 5, 6. It is logically possible (though highly unlikely) for the children to desire censorship.
END
Source: The Straits Times, 13/5/9, p.A18 (letters)
Headline: Instilling values a complex task
Writer: Warren Mark Liew
Quote1
I read with concern last Saturday's letter supporting the suspension of all sexuality education programmes offered by external agencies. ...
Comment
This identifies the topic of discussion.
Quote2
Censoring all alternative views would be contrary to the Ministry of Education's (MOE) push for critical thinking.
Comment2
Here is the argument, formally presented:
Premiss1: If (censor all), then (contrary to MOE)
Premiss2: Not-(contrary to MOE) [suppressed]
Conclusion: Hence, not-(censor all) [suppressed]
This is an enthymeme, a partial argument. We complete it above, supplying the suppressed portions as well.
The argument structure is the special case of the Modus Tollens known as reductio ad absurdum (reduce to absurdity). Censoring all alternative views has the consequence of being contrary to MOE's policy (Premiss1). This consequence is absurd, so we reject it (Premiss2). This leads us to the inevitable conclusion of rejecting (censor all).
Quote3
If argumentative essays at the secondary and junior college levels can encourage students to engage both sides of the "pro-life" and "pro-choice" abortion debate, why should not this balanced approach be similarly extended to the controversial topics of gender roles and sexual orientation?
Comment3
The question at the end of this quote is a rhetorical question, meaning it should be read as a statement: "this balanced approach should be similarly extended ...". In general, I advise against using rhetorical questions, as we cannot be sure the reader will understand its intention as a statement. Better to just make the statement.
This is an argument urging consistency (Premiss1):
Premiss1: If (abortion debate), then (gender debate)
Premiss2: (abortion debate)
Conclusion: Hence, (gender debate)
The argument structure is a Modus Ponens, hence valid. Premiss2 is a statement of fact. Premiss1 is the statement of consistency. If Premiss1 is held to be true, the conclusion follows.
Quote4
A mature curriculum for sexuality education should reflect not only the mainstream views and values of Singapore's society but also an educated awareness of alternative views based on well researched knowledge and information.
Comment4
This argument is premissed upon an understanding of what comprises a (mature curriculum), and on our desire for such.
Premiss1: If (mature curriculum), then (reflect all views)
Premiss2: (mature curriculum) [suppressed]
Conclusion: Hence, (reflect all views) [suppressed]
The argument form (technical term for argument structure) is the valid Modus Ponens. If the two premisses are held to be true, the conclusion follows.
Quote5
Perhaps, MOE would be wise to consult students for their views on what ought to be included in a 21st century sexuality education curriculum. Our children are often more precocious than we give them credit for.
Comment5
Premiss1: If (children precocious), then (consult students) [suppressed]
Premiss2: (children precocious)
Conclusion: Hence, (consult students)
Quote6
Silencing their views in favour of the dominant conservatism is itself a kind of prejudice against the ability of young people to think for themselves.
Comment6
This argument is, like that in Comment2, a Modus Tollens -- except that it is not the special case of reduction ad absurdum. Here is the argument, formally presented:
Premiss1: If (silence children), then (prejudice)
Premiss2: Not-(prejudice) [suppressed]
Conclusion: Hence, not-(silence children) [suppressed]
The argument is valid. If the premisses are held to be true, the conclusion follows.
Comment7
Note the different thrusts of the various arguments.
Comment2: Do not censor all views.
Comment3, 4: Allow gender debate, reflect all views.
Comment5: Consult children
Comment6: Do not silence children
Note also that 2, 3, 4 may not be compatible with 5, 6. It is logically possible (though highly unlikely) for the children to desire censorship.
END
Tuesday, 12 May 2009
Who would hire an argumentologist?
The other evening, a new acquaintance, upon inspecting my name card, asked: "Just what is an argumentologist? Who would engage your services?" These are both questions deserving of a considered answer.
I coined the word "argumentologist" -- but it is not a frivolous or careless coinage.
The "argument" portion comes from logic, where it refers to the combination of reason and position, taken together.
The "ologist" portion of the word "argumentologist" carries the meaning "student of", as is also the case in the words "psychologist", "etymologist", "entomologist", "oncologist", "anthropologist" etc.
Thus, an argumentologist is a student of arguments. His expertise is analysing and evaluating arguments. He learns to differentiate between bad and good arguments.
Now for the second question: Who would engage an argumentologist's services?
A manager receives proposals for competing new directions or actions. He may need help with the corresponding arguments.
Two disputing parties hurl arguments at each other, making no headway in either direction. They may need help to assess who has the stronger case.
Someone is on the verge of a major life decision, and is confused by all the pros and cons of each option. He may need help to weigh the options, and to decide from among them.
A parent agonises over his work-life balance. He may need help finding the middle ground.
A student can't decide whether his teacher's or his parent's views on sex are correct. He may need help to analyse and evaluate the various arguments.
All these people, and many others, can benefit from engaging an argumentologist's services -- either to perform the analyses and evaluation for them, or to teach them how to do it for themselves.
Knowing why one believes and does what one believes and does is the only path to living a conscious life. (Caveat: One is, of course, free to live an unconscious life.)
Finally, to all those still sceptical of the benefits of engaging an argumentologist's services, let me just ask this: What are the tests for a good arguments?
I coined the word "argumentologist" -- but it is not a frivolous or careless coinage.
The "argument" portion comes from logic, where it refers to the combination of reason and position, taken together.
The "ologist" portion of the word "argumentologist" carries the meaning "student of", as is also the case in the words "psychologist", "etymologist", "entomologist", "oncologist", "anthropologist" etc.
Thus, an argumentologist is a student of arguments. His expertise is analysing and evaluating arguments. He learns to differentiate between bad and good arguments.
Now for the second question: Who would engage an argumentologist's services?
A manager receives proposals for competing new directions or actions. He may need help with the corresponding arguments.
Two disputing parties hurl arguments at each other, making no headway in either direction. They may need help to assess who has the stronger case.
Someone is on the verge of a major life decision, and is confused by all the pros and cons of each option. He may need help to weigh the options, and to decide from among them.
A parent agonises over his work-life balance. He may need help finding the middle ground.
A student can't decide whether his teacher's or his parent's views on sex are correct. He may need help to analyse and evaluate the various arguments.
All these people, and many others, can benefit from engaging an argumentologist's services -- either to perform the analyses and evaluation for them, or to teach them how to do it for themselves.
Knowing why one believes and does what one believes and does is the only path to living a conscious life. (Caveat: One is, of course, free to live an unconscious life.)
Finally, to all those still sceptical of the benefits of engaging an argumentologist's services, let me just ask this: What are the tests for a good arguments?
Should big bras cost more?
Marks & Spencer recently changed its pricing policy on big bras. We examine the reasons.
Source: The Straits Times, 9/5/9, p.C25
Headline: Marks & Spencer scraps 'big boobs' bra surcharge after revolt
Quote1
LONDON: Britain's largest clothing retailer, Marks & Spencer (M&S), has backed down on its incendiary policy of charging a two pound (S$4.45) surcharge for bras that are DD or larger. ...
Comment1
This is the decision. Let's look at the reasons.
Quote2
Some 14,000 women had lent their names to a Facebook campaign aimed at eliminating the big boob penalty. ... The group, which grew exponentially in the last few days, had vowed to challenge [CEO] Mr Rose and other M&S executives at the company's annual meeting this summer. ... "They're didn't want a lot of big-breasted women storming their meeting," said Ms [Becky] Mount, 19, [who co-founded the Busts 4 Justice Facebook group].
Comment2
This is a threat of force. We do not accept it when the robber waves his gun at the victim, and it should not be accepted here. This fallacy carries the name Argumentum ad Baculum (appeal to the stick).
Quote3
The new policy brings M&S into line with other major retailers in Britain, who decline to pass the higher cost of designing and manufacturing large-size bras on to the consumer.
Comment3
This describes the situation after the M&S decision, and was not offered as a reason. Had it been offered as a reason, the argument would have been:
Reason: Other stores charge the same price for all bras.
Conclusion: Hence, M&S should charge the same price for all bras.
This is an appeal to popular sentiment -- which could be wrong (think slavery in the 18th century). Consider if no shop could offer a discount unless every shop offers a discount. This argument carries the name Argumentum ad Populum (appeal to the gallery), and must be rejected.
Quote4
[Buyer] Ms [Nicky] Clayton said M&S probably ran into trouble because its lingerie price policy differed from the strategy used for other items. ... AP.
Comment4
Here's the argument:
Reason: M&S practises one-price-all-sizes for all other items.
Conclusion: Hence, M&S should practise one-price-all-sizes for its bras.
This is an appeal to consistency -- always a powerful call in logic. Indeed, it fits one definition of justice: that similar things should be treated similarly, and different things should be treated differently. In this case, the similar things are items of clothing, and the similar treatment is one-price-all-sizes.
Source: The Straits Times, 9/5/9, p.C25
Headline: Marks & Spencer scraps 'big boobs' bra surcharge after revolt
Quote1
LONDON: Britain's largest clothing retailer, Marks & Spencer (M&S), has backed down on its incendiary policy of charging a two pound (S$4.45) surcharge for bras that are DD or larger. ...
Comment1
This is the decision. Let's look at the reasons.
Quote2
Some 14,000 women had lent their names to a Facebook campaign aimed at eliminating the big boob penalty. ... The group, which grew exponentially in the last few days, had vowed to challenge [CEO] Mr Rose and other M&S executives at the company's annual meeting this summer. ... "They're didn't want a lot of big-breasted women storming their meeting," said Ms [Becky] Mount, 19, [who co-founded the Busts 4 Justice Facebook group].
Comment2
This is a threat of force. We do not accept it when the robber waves his gun at the victim, and it should not be accepted here. This fallacy carries the name Argumentum ad Baculum (appeal to the stick).
Quote3
The new policy brings M&S into line with other major retailers in Britain, who decline to pass the higher cost of designing and manufacturing large-size bras on to the consumer.
Comment3
This describes the situation after the M&S decision, and was not offered as a reason. Had it been offered as a reason, the argument would have been:
Reason: Other stores charge the same price for all bras.
Conclusion: Hence, M&S should charge the same price for all bras.
This is an appeal to popular sentiment -- which could be wrong (think slavery in the 18th century). Consider if no shop could offer a discount unless every shop offers a discount. This argument carries the name Argumentum ad Populum (appeal to the gallery), and must be rejected.
Quote4
[Buyer] Ms [Nicky] Clayton said M&S probably ran into trouble because its lingerie price policy differed from the strategy used for other items. ... AP.
Comment4
Here's the argument:
Reason: M&S practises one-price-all-sizes for all other items.
Conclusion: Hence, M&S should practise one-price-all-sizes for its bras.
This is an appeal to consistency -- always a powerful call in logic. Indeed, it fits one definition of justice: that similar things should be treated similarly, and different things should be treated differently. In this case, the similar things are items of clothing, and the similar treatment is one-price-all-sizes.
Where is the Singapore economy headed?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently forecast a dire immediate future for the Singapore economy. But others disagree. We analyse the arguments.
Source: The Straits Times, 7/5/9, p.B15
Headline: Singapore economy may shrink 10%: IMF
Writer: By Fiona Chan
Quote1
The IMF has slashed its forecast for Singapore's growth this year, saying the economy could decline 10 percent to end up as the worst performer in Asia. ... These dire forecasts were released in the IMF's latest regional economic outlook, launched yesterday at the MAS Building. ... Singapore saw the biggest downward revision, said IMF representative Joshua Felman: ...
"If you look around the region, what you see is the countries that have been hit hardest in the crisis have two characteristics: They are the most open economies and they are the ones that specialise in manufacturing. ... Singapore fits well under both categories, and that's why we expect that the decline in output this year is really going to be quite sizeable." ...
Comment1
This is an example of J S Mill's Method of Agreement. Several instances of the phenomenon (hard hit economy) are examined for preceding factors. Common factors are identified: (open economy) and (manufacturing). These are claimed to be the causes. Singapore has both factors. Hence, Singapore will have the effect (hard hit economy).
Quote2
Dr Chua Hak Bin of Citigroup, who spoke in a panel discussion at the IMF event, ... noted that Asia's historical experience has shown that recessions tend to be followed by V-shaped recoveries, especially in small open economies such as Hong Kong and Singapore.
Comment2
This is an inductive argument:
Reason: In the past, recessions followed by V recoveries (esp. in small, open economies)
Conclusion: Hence, this recession will be followed by V recovery.
Note that this conclusion does not contradict the conclusion in Comment1. It is logically possible for a hard hit economy to have a V-shaped recovery.
Quote3
Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng, who was also at yesterday's launch, said ... "The IMF forecast does not seem to square with the indicators that we are seeing, including the fact that exports are rebounding quite smartly in month-on-month terms."
Comment3
We complete the argument:
Premiss1: Exports rebound month-on-month
Premiss2: If (exports rebound month-on-month), then (not-(hard hit economy)) [suppressed]
Conclusion: Hence, (not-(hard hit economy))
This conclusion does contradict the conclusion in Comment1. The question lies with Premiss2: How much of a rebound is needed to bring about the consequence of (not-(hard hit economy))?
Source: The Straits Times, 7/5/9, p.B15
Headline: Economy's openness 'to ensure quicker rebound'
Writer: By Robin Chan
Quote4
But this openness will mean a quicker rebound when a global recovery kicks in, Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) deputy managing director Ong Chong Tee told a business seminar yesterday at the Ritz-Carlton Millenia. This openness and trade dependency makes the economy "more susceptible to global headwinds."
Comment4
This returns us to the argument in Comment1. It wants to revise Premiss1 to:
If (open economy), then (greater susceptibility)
This would allow a hard hit economy to have a V-shaped recovery -- provided the rest of the world recovers first.
Source: The Straits Times, 7/5/9, p.B15
Headline: Singapore economy may shrink 10%: IMF
Writer: By Fiona Chan
Quote1
The IMF has slashed its forecast for Singapore's growth this year, saying the economy could decline 10 percent to end up as the worst performer in Asia. ... These dire forecasts were released in the IMF's latest regional economic outlook, launched yesterday at the MAS Building. ... Singapore saw the biggest downward revision, said IMF representative Joshua Felman: ...
"If you look around the region, what you see is the countries that have been hit hardest in the crisis have two characteristics: They are the most open economies and they are the ones that specialise in manufacturing. ... Singapore fits well under both categories, and that's why we expect that the decline in output this year is really going to be quite sizeable." ...
Comment1
This is an example of J S Mill's Method of Agreement. Several instances of the phenomenon (hard hit economy) are examined for preceding factors. Common factors are identified: (open economy) and (manufacturing). These are claimed to be the causes. Singapore has both factors. Hence, Singapore will have the effect (hard hit economy).
Quote2
Dr Chua Hak Bin of Citigroup, who spoke in a panel discussion at the IMF event, ... noted that Asia's historical experience has shown that recessions tend to be followed by V-shaped recoveries, especially in small open economies such as Hong Kong and Singapore.
Comment2
This is an inductive argument:
Reason: In the past, recessions followed by V recoveries (esp. in small, open economies)
Conclusion: Hence, this recession will be followed by V recovery.
Note that this conclusion does not contradict the conclusion in Comment1. It is logically possible for a hard hit economy to have a V-shaped recovery.
Quote3
Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng, who was also at yesterday's launch, said ... "The IMF forecast does not seem to square with the indicators that we are seeing, including the fact that exports are rebounding quite smartly in month-on-month terms."
Comment3
We complete the argument:
Premiss1: Exports rebound month-on-month
Premiss2: If (exports rebound month-on-month), then (not-(hard hit economy)) [suppressed]
Conclusion: Hence, (not-(hard hit economy))
This conclusion does contradict the conclusion in Comment1. The question lies with Premiss2: How much of a rebound is needed to bring about the consequence of (not-(hard hit economy))?
Source: The Straits Times, 7/5/9, p.B15
Headline: Economy's openness 'to ensure quicker rebound'
Writer: By Robin Chan
Quote4
But this openness will mean a quicker rebound when a global recovery kicks in, Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) deputy managing director Ong Chong Tee told a business seminar yesterday at the Ritz-Carlton Millenia. This openness and trade dependency makes the economy "more susceptible to global headwinds."
Comment4
This returns us to the argument in Comment1. It wants to revise Premiss1 to:
If (open economy), then (greater susceptibility)
This would allow a hard hit economy to have a V-shaped recovery -- provided the rest of the world recovers first.
Are Singapore made goods safe?
My Paper, 6/5/9, p. A6
Singapore voted 2nd-safest manufacturing centre in Asia
By Cheryl Lim
Quote1:
Singapore has been voted the second-safest manufacturing centre in Asia ... in a consumer perception survey by ... The Research Pacific Group. ... Ms Koh Wan Lyn, a senior research analyst at Research Pacific ... said that the poll was "designed to understand consumer attitudes towards a product's country of origin."
Comment1:
This clarification is significant. It is consumer attitudes that are being measured here, and not actual product/service safety.
Quote2:
Explaining Singapore's commendable ranking in the poll, she said: "Singapore has a very clean track record when it comes to its products because of its regulating agencies. They ensure that its manufacturers comply with international standards and adhere to strict safety regulations."
Comment2:
I am sceptical if regulating agencies, international standards and safety regulations are things that the average consumer is familiar with. These causal factors seem more likely to explain actual product/service safety rather than consumers' perceived product/service safety. In short, these do not explain the poll results.
Quote3:
The airline and medical sectors were two categories in which Singapore scored well. Ms Koh attributed this to the "good reputation of Singapore Airlines, and the medical and research infrastructure provided by organisations like A*Star."
Comment3:
Attributing consumers' favourable perceived product/service safety to "good reputation" is akin to saying "He is fat because he is overweight" -- it's just saying the same thing in different words. As for "medical and research infrastructure", they too go towards explaining actual product/service safety rather than consumers' favourable perceived product/service safety.
Summary & Conclusion:
The poll shows that consumers regard Singapore as the second-safest manufacturing centre in Asia. This is not the same as saying that Singapore is actually the second-safest manufacturing centre in Asia. We have not been offered any good explanation for the favourable perception.
Singapore voted 2nd-safest manufacturing centre in Asia
By Cheryl Lim
Quote1:
Singapore has been voted the second-safest manufacturing centre in Asia ... in a consumer perception survey by ... The Research Pacific Group. ... Ms Koh Wan Lyn, a senior research analyst at Research Pacific ... said that the poll was "designed to understand consumer attitudes towards a product's country of origin."
Comment1:
This clarification is significant. It is consumer attitudes that are being measured here, and not actual product/service safety.
Quote2:
Explaining Singapore's commendable ranking in the poll, she said: "Singapore has a very clean track record when it comes to its products because of its regulating agencies. They ensure that its manufacturers comply with international standards and adhere to strict safety regulations."
Comment2:
I am sceptical if regulating agencies, international standards and safety regulations are things that the average consumer is familiar with. These causal factors seem more likely to explain actual product/service safety rather than consumers' perceived product/service safety. In short, these do not explain the poll results.
Quote3:
The airline and medical sectors were two categories in which Singapore scored well. Ms Koh attributed this to the "good reputation of Singapore Airlines, and the medical and research infrastructure provided by organisations like A*Star."
Comment3:
Attributing consumers' favourable perceived product/service safety to "good reputation" is akin to saying "He is fat because he is overweight" -- it's just saying the same thing in different words. As for "medical and research infrastructure", they too go towards explaining actual product/service safety rather than consumers' favourable perceived product/service safety.
Summary & Conclusion:
The poll shows that consumers regard Singapore as the second-safest manufacturing centre in Asia. This is not the same as saying that Singapore is actually the second-safest manufacturing centre in Asia. We have not been offered any good explanation for the favourable perception.
Thursday, 7 May 2009
How serious will the new flu outbreak be?
One commentary specifically addresses this question. We analyse the commentary.
Source: The Straits Times, 1/5/9, p.A25
Headline: Keeping the big picture in sight
Writer: Michael Richardson
Quote1:
The World Health Organisation has warned that a global influenza outbreak is imminent. How serious will it be?
Comment1:
The question is posed. Now for the arguments.
Quote2:
There were three flu pandemics in the last century. By far the worst was the so-called Spanish flu of 1918-1919. ... An estimated 25 percent to 30 percent of the world population fell ill and at least 40 million people died. The toll was many times higher than the 8.3 million who perished in the fighting. In the US, the flu mortality rate was around 3 percent of those infected. In Singapore, more than 2,870 people died, a death rate of under 2 percent. ...
Comment2:
From these numbers and percentages, what can we infer to be the case this time around? We are not told. There is no argument to that effect.
Quote3:
The US Centres for Disease Control has identified the pathogen as a unique version of the H1N1 strain of the influenza A virus, the only type of flu virus that can cause a pandemic. H1N1 is also the same strain that causes seasonal outbreaks of flu in humans. But this latest subtype is different from both the Spanish flu and seasonal flu. It is believed to be a hybrid containing genetic material from flu viruses in pigs in North America, Europe and Asia. It also contains genetic segments from North American human flu and bird flu. ... Although the bug may have evolved from or in pigs, it has not been shown to cause disease in them. The World Organisation for Animal Health ... called for urgent scientific research to determine the susceptibility of animals to the pathogen. ... We do not yet know how quickly or how far the new virus will spread among humans or whether it will trigger severe respiratory illness in large numbers of people, causing many to die. ...
Comment3:
To summarise, we do not know the danger this virus posses to animals or humans.
Quote4:
The 1918-1919 outbreak occurred in two waves. ... [The] first wave was highly contagious but not especially deadly. So when the second wave hit in August 1918, no country was prepared for the explosive outbreaks and a tenfold rise in the death rate. ...
Comment4:
Should we expect wave attacks again? Should we expect the second wave to be stronger? We are not told. There is no argument for or against these effects.
Quote5:
The 1918-1919 outbreaks had characteristics that were not seen before or since. Deaths from flu, whether during seasonal epidemics or pandemics, usually occur in the very young or very old. In the case of the Spanish flu, most deaths were among those aged 15 to 35, a prime-of-life group normally resistant to illness.
Comment5:
Based on that one-time age demographic, should we expect the same vulnerability this time around? We are not told. There is no argument either way.
Quote6:
Latest research on the 1918-1919 pandemic indicates that most of the deaths were not from primary viral pneumonia. They were the result of bacterial infections in weakened respiratory systems. ... Science and health care have certainly made major advances since 1918. But the world's population is also much bigger and vast numbers of people ... lack the resources that could help protect them from pandemic flu. Concerns ... have strengthened international defences, putting surveillance and reaction mechanisms in place. ... Many countries and the WHO have also stockpiled antiviral drugs. ... Governments must ensure that such drugs are used, ... not ... hoarded. ...
Comment6:
Will medical advance and supply overcome increased population and poor distribution? We are not told. There is no argument.
Quote7:
With luck, the virulence of this one will be relatively low.
Comment7:
Luck, by definition, is unpredictable.
Comment8:
The question has not been answered.
Source: The Straits Times, 1/5/9, p.A25
Headline: Keeping the big picture in sight
Writer: Michael Richardson
Quote1:
The World Health Organisation has warned that a global influenza outbreak is imminent. How serious will it be?
Comment1:
The question is posed. Now for the arguments.
Quote2:
There were three flu pandemics in the last century. By far the worst was the so-called Spanish flu of 1918-1919. ... An estimated 25 percent to 30 percent of the world population fell ill and at least 40 million people died. The toll was many times higher than the 8.3 million who perished in the fighting. In the US, the flu mortality rate was around 3 percent of those infected. In Singapore, more than 2,870 people died, a death rate of under 2 percent. ...
Comment2:
From these numbers and percentages, what can we infer to be the case this time around? We are not told. There is no argument to that effect.
Quote3:
The US Centres for Disease Control has identified the pathogen as a unique version of the H1N1 strain of the influenza A virus, the only type of flu virus that can cause a pandemic. H1N1 is also the same strain that causes seasonal outbreaks of flu in humans. But this latest subtype is different from both the Spanish flu and seasonal flu. It is believed to be a hybrid containing genetic material from flu viruses in pigs in North America, Europe and Asia. It also contains genetic segments from North American human flu and bird flu. ... Although the bug may have evolved from or in pigs, it has not been shown to cause disease in them. The World Organisation for Animal Health ... called for urgent scientific research to determine the susceptibility of animals to the pathogen. ... We do not yet know how quickly or how far the new virus will spread among humans or whether it will trigger severe respiratory illness in large numbers of people, causing many to die. ...
Comment3:
To summarise, we do not know the danger this virus posses to animals or humans.
Quote4:
The 1918-1919 outbreak occurred in two waves. ... [The] first wave was highly contagious but not especially deadly. So when the second wave hit in August 1918, no country was prepared for the explosive outbreaks and a tenfold rise in the death rate. ...
Comment4:
Should we expect wave attacks again? Should we expect the second wave to be stronger? We are not told. There is no argument for or against these effects.
Quote5:
The 1918-1919 outbreaks had characteristics that were not seen before or since. Deaths from flu, whether during seasonal epidemics or pandemics, usually occur in the very young or very old. In the case of the Spanish flu, most deaths were among those aged 15 to 35, a prime-of-life group normally resistant to illness.
Comment5:
Based on that one-time age demographic, should we expect the same vulnerability this time around? We are not told. There is no argument either way.
Quote6:
Latest research on the 1918-1919 pandemic indicates that most of the deaths were not from primary viral pneumonia. They were the result of bacterial infections in weakened respiratory systems. ... Science and health care have certainly made major advances since 1918. But the world's population is also much bigger and vast numbers of people ... lack the resources that could help protect them from pandemic flu. Concerns ... have strengthened international defences, putting surveillance and reaction mechanisms in place. ... Many countries and the WHO have also stockpiled antiviral drugs. ... Governments must ensure that such drugs are used, ... not ... hoarded. ...
Comment6:
Will medical advance and supply overcome increased population and poor distribution? We are not told. There is no argument.
Quote7:
With luck, the virulence of this one will be relatively low.
Comment7:
Luck, by definition, is unpredictable.
Comment8:
The question has not been answered.
Does chewing gum improve maths grades?
Source: My Paper, 29/4/9, p.A9
Headline: Chewing gum boosts maths scores, says study funded by Wrigley
Quote1:
The study was funded by chewing-gum maker Wrigley. ...
Comment1:
The temptation here is to discount the study because of Wrigley's vested interests in the result. This commits the fallacy Argumentum ad Hominem (circumstantial) -- appeal to one's circumstances -- and must be rejected. We need to look at the merits of the study.
Quote2:
Researchers at Baylor [College of Medicine] studied four maths classes with 108 students aged between 13 and 16 years old ... Half received free sugar-free gum to chew during class and tests, and while doing homework. ... The other half went without.
Comment2:
The half that received the gum is known as the experimental group. The half that did not receive the gum is known as the control group. This model of scientific study is based on the logic of English philosopher John Stuart Mill's Method of Difference. The proposed cause (chewing gum) is applied to one group (the experimental group), and not applied to another group (the control group). Then we watch to see if they show any difference in the alleged effect.
Quote3:
After 14 weeks. the gum chewers had a 3 percent increase in their maths scores on the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills achievement test -- a statistically significant change, said the researchers. ... The gum chewers also got better final grades in their classes.
Comment3:
It turns out that there is a difference. The phrase "statistically significant" means that the difference is greater than could have occurred by chance. We now have initial grounds to say chewing gum improves maths grades. To confirm this, we repeat the experiment.
Quote4:
The researchers found no difference in maths scores between the two groups in another test called the Woodcock Johnson III Tests of Achievement.
Comment4:
The same difference is created between the control and experimental groups, but a different math test is applied. No difference in the alleged effect is found. The initial finding is not replicated. This reduces our confidence in the causal connection.
Comment5:
Note that the study is discounted on its merits, instead of resorting to an ad hominem argument.
END
Headline: Chewing gum boosts maths scores, says study funded by Wrigley
Quote1:
The study was funded by chewing-gum maker Wrigley. ...
Comment1:
The temptation here is to discount the study because of Wrigley's vested interests in the result. This commits the fallacy Argumentum ad Hominem (circumstantial) -- appeal to one's circumstances -- and must be rejected. We need to look at the merits of the study.
Quote2:
Researchers at Baylor [College of Medicine] studied four maths classes with 108 students aged between 13 and 16 years old ... Half received free sugar-free gum to chew during class and tests, and while doing homework. ... The other half went without.
Comment2:
The half that received the gum is known as the experimental group. The half that did not receive the gum is known as the control group. This model of scientific study is based on the logic of English philosopher John Stuart Mill's Method of Difference. The proposed cause (chewing gum) is applied to one group (the experimental group), and not applied to another group (the control group). Then we watch to see if they show any difference in the alleged effect.
Quote3:
After 14 weeks. the gum chewers had a 3 percent increase in their maths scores on the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills achievement test -- a statistically significant change, said the researchers. ... The gum chewers also got better final grades in their classes.
Comment3:
It turns out that there is a difference. The phrase "statistically significant" means that the difference is greater than could have occurred by chance. We now have initial grounds to say chewing gum improves maths grades. To confirm this, we repeat the experiment.
Quote4:
The researchers found no difference in maths scores between the two groups in another test called the Woodcock Johnson III Tests of Achievement.
Comment4:
The same difference is created between the control and experimental groups, but a different math test is applied. No difference in the alleged effect is found. The initial finding is not replicated. This reduces our confidence in the causal connection.
Comment5:
Note that the study is discounted on its merits, instead of resorting to an ad hominem argument.
END
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)