Tuesday 16 December 2008

Will Tokyo's new package work?

Source: The Straits Times, 13/12/8, p.A5
Headline: Tokyo unveils new help package

Quote1:
TOKYO: Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso yesterday announced a new stimulus package to shore up his country's economy. ... The additional package ... "may help slow the pace of a worsening economy but it doesn't have enough power to buoy the economy," said Mr Mamoru Yamazaki, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities Japan in Tokyo.

Comment1:
Mr Yamazaki has made an assertion, but offers no argument (at least none is reported) to support it. We are told one credential, that he is chief economist at RBS Securities Japan. That's all we have to go on. Is that enough?

Quote2:
"This is a desperate attempt by Mr Aso to recover support," said Mr Minoru Morita, an independent political analyst and author of a book on Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party. "He's falling deeper into a quagmire by announcing various measures that aren't backed up by budgets." -- AP, Bloomberg.

Comment2a:
The charge of "desperate attempt" offers a psychological cause or political motive behind Mr Aso's announcement of a new stimulus package. It does not amount to saying the package will be ineffective. It is logically possible for a desperate attempt to nonetheless be effective.

Comment2b:
We are told two credentials: "independent political analyst" and "author of a book on Japan's ruling LDP". Are they enough?

Comment2c:
An enthymeme (partial argument) is offered. We complete the argument, providing the hidden parts in square brackets.

Premiss1: [If (measures not backed up by budgets), then (fall deeper into quagmire)]
Premiss2: Measures not backed up by budgets
Conclusion: Hence, fall deeper into quagmire

The argument has the form Modus Ponens (If P then Q, P, hence Q), which is valid. We accept Premiss2 as a statement of fact. The remaining test is whether Premiss1 is true. Intuitively, it is not. The fact of a measure not being backed up by budgets does not seem sufficient on its own to guarantee an economy falling deeper into quagmire. Since the argument fails this final test, we must reject the argument.

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