Source: The Straits Times, 18/8/8, p.A17
Headline: The great illusion
Author: Paul Krugman
Comment:
This article presents a negative thesis: that something is not the case. What is this something?
Quote:
Shortly before World War I another British author, Norman Angell, published a famous book titled The Great Illusion, in which he argued that war had become obsolete, that in the modern industrial era even military victors lose far more than they gain. ...
Comment:
The thesis to be disproved is: Globalisation prevents wars.
Quote:
But war kept happening anyway.
Comment:
This is disproof by counterexample. Just as we disprove "All swans are white" by producing a single black swan, we disprove "globalisation prevents wars" by citing examples where wars [in particular, World War I] occur despite globalisation. Faced with a counterexample, we must draw the conclusion: not-(globalisation prevents wars).
Quote:
So are the foundations of the second global economy [what we have now, as compared to before WWI] any more solid than those of the first? In some ways, yes.
Comment:
This is an attempted reply to the counterexample. The reply is by way of making a [not explicitly stated] distinction between today's "more solid" globalisation and the globalisation of before WWI. What's the difference?
Quote:
For example, war among the nations of Western Europe really does seem inconceivable now, not so much because of economic ties as because of shared democratic values.
Comment:
Today's globalisation is stronger because of shared democratic values.
Quote:
Much of the world, however, including nations that play a key role in the global economy, doesn't share those values. ...
Comment:
This difference between today's globalisation and pre-WWI globalisation cannot be sustained. Therefore, the two globalisations are not different. Therefore, the counterexample stands -- and the thesis falls.
Quote:
... the belief that economic rationality always prevents wars is an equally great illusion.
Comment:
To capture the argument:
Thesis: Globalisation prevents wars.
Counterexample: World War I occured despite globalisation.
Conclusion: Therefore, not-(globalisation prevents wars)
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3 comments:
looks like a modus tollens to me :)
Sean Koh from your newly taught critical thinking class
Hi Sean,
Yes, you're right. A counterexample (not covered in Jason's book) works on a Modus Tollens principle. See if you can work out the full argument form. It's quite straightforward. Cheers.
I am extremely impressed by the fact that there is such a blog around here, been trying to start up one, but i don't have the intellectuals for it yet. Thank you for your effort spend in writing philosophy and allowing the public to learn more what i think is vital to our own human life.
Thank You,
Yap Yun Han
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